Online holiday sales will grow 4.8% over last year, according to Adobe’s predictions. Adobe released its annual forecast for the holiday shopping season on Thursday, which covers the period Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, basing its prediction on its measurement of direct transactions online, including over 1 trillion visits to US retail sites.
Mobile shopping is set to overtake desktop for the first time, driving over half (51.2%) of all online spending this season.
Buy Now Pay Later is set to drive a record $17 billion, up a significant 16.9% year-over-year, the company said. “Despite an unpredictable/challenging economic environment, Adobe expects record discounts and flexible payment services will drive 4.8% growth YoY in eCommerce ($221.8B in spend).”
Adobe expects discounts to hit record highs this season:
Discounts for toys are expected to peak at 35% off listed prices (vs. 34% in 2022);
Discounts for electronics are expected to hit 30% (vs. 25% in 2022);
Discounts for apparel are expected to hit 25% (vs. 19% in 2022)
Discounts for sporting goods are expected to hit 24% (vs. 10% in 2022);
Discounts for TVs are expected to hit 22% (vs. 17% in 2022);
Discounts for furniture/bedding are expected to hit 19% (vs. 8% in 2022).
Adobe expects the best deals to occur during Cyber Week (the shopping period including Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday), but said consumers would see bargains as early as the second week of October, where discounts are expected to be as high as 18%.
Adobe expects Cyber Monday will remain the season’s and year’s biggest shopping day, driving a record $12 billion in spending, up 6.1% YoY. Black Friday online sales are set to grow by 5.7% YoY to $9.6 billion, with Thanksgiving growing 5.5% YoY to $5.6 billion. Driven by deep discounts, these big shopping days remain important anchor points for the season, Adobe said.
Deals will also persist, with discounts as high as 20% in the days leading up to Cyber Week (Nov. 1 through Nov. 17).
“Despite an unpredictable economic environment, where consumers face several challenges including rising interest rates, we expect strong e-commerce growth this season on account of record discounts and flexible payment methods,” said Patrick Brown, vice president of growth marketing at Adobe. “Buy Now, Pay Later in particular has become increasingly mainstream and will make it easier for shoppers to hit the buy button, especially on mobile devices where over half of online spending will take place.”
